Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Each composes two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
